Welcome to winter! We’ve already received a fresh blanket of snow this week, with more on the way, setting the stage for another great season. As we head into the holiday season, we’re making a few changes. Starting next week, we’ll be sending this newsletter on Thursdays to give you more time to plan for weekend activities. This season, instead of links to fall activities like trail events, farmer's markets, and outdoor music, we’ll be spotlighting a local volunteer opportunity, local business, and ski resort stats each week.
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With the 2024 Presidential Election approaching, shifts in the housing market have already begun, marking what has become a recurring trend during election years. Over time, real estate investors have observed these shifts—largely driven by a sense of uncertainty among both buyers and sellers—as part of a typical pattern. This momentary dip in activity often gives way to renewed momentum once the election dust settles.
Each winter usually brings a seasonal slowdown in home sales, a natural lull in real estate activity as the year draws to a close. During an election year, however, this typical pattern often sees an intensified effect. Data from BTIG reveals that home sales often dip slightly more than usual in the weeks leading up to Election Day. The reason behind this trend is simple: uncertainty. The political climate during election season can make potential homebuyers and sellers pause as they await the election results and consider how the incoming administration’s policies might impact the economy and their investments.
In 2024, nearly a quarter of first-time buyers—23%, according to a recent Redfin survey—say they are planning to hold off on purchasing a home until after the election. For many, it’s a time of “wait and see,” with major decisions on pause until clearer signals emerge from the market and policy landscape.
The promising aspect of this election-driven market pause is that it’s temporary. Historical data shows that home sales frequently bounce back shortly after Election Day, with activity increasing 82% of the time in the year following a presidential election. This rebound is largely attributed to a renewed sense of certainty, as both buyers and sellers feel they have a clearer picture of the future and are more willing to act on significant financial commitments.
This pattern has been well-documented and consistent: once the unknowns surrounding the election are resolved, confidence in the market returns, creating an ideal environment for renewed activity.
The outlook for 2025 suggests a strong year for real estate, with the market poised for a notable uptick in activity. Projections align with historical patterns, forecasting total home sales to climb from 4.6 million in 2024 to around 5.2 million in 2025. This anticipated growth aligns with the general post-election recovery cycle, as lingering demand from buyers and sellers translates into a surge in market activity when certainty returns and market confidence strengthens.
Industry forecasts indicate that, as the political landscape stabilizes, housing activity will pick up considerably. For those closely following the market, this pattern offers a unique perspective on timing opportunities and preparing for potential shifts. This dip in the market can present an excellent opportunity to act before the rebound occurs, and prices and competition increase. If you’re considering selling or investing, let’s connect to discuss the best timing to make your move.